New data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across the UK, threatening to cause delays for shoppers this festive season.
The final three months of the year are one of the busiest shopping seasons worldwide, known to retailers as the Golden Quarter. Spanning Black Friday and Cyber Monday through to the busy holiday season, consumer spending typically increases, creating a bumper season for businesses.
This year, logistics challenges may leave shoppers disappointed, as new data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across the UK, threatening to cause delays in meeting seasonal delivery demands.
In 2023, the golden quarter period saw global ecommerce sales hit USD $70.9 billion, almost double the $40 billion sales from the year before. Esendex data also found that 77% of consumers rein in their shopping up to a month before Black Friday, so they can splurge on sales and discounted items.
While shoppers are on the hunt for quality deals and last-minute purchases, retailers are heavily reliant on HGV and delivery drivers throughout this period, to ensure they can match the sharp rise in demand and keep customers happy.
The latest annual post monitoring report by Ofcom found that the volume of measured parcels across the UK increased by 8.3%, to 3.9 billion items in 2023-2024. It found that two-thirds of parcel recipients (67%) reported experiencing a delivery issue with any parcel operator in the past six months, including delays (27%). It also found that, on average, consumer satisfaction was at 45% when it came to contact from parcel operators.
This comes after a report revealed nearly half (42%) of fleet-based businesses were impacted by driver shortages in 2023, as the growth in online shopping continues, adding to more pressure when it comes to timely deliveries.
As customers demand prompt delivery, clear communication, and a swift turnaround at any time of the year, businesses can struggle to manage expectations when they experience higher order volumes during peak season.
A growing shortage of delivery drivers can cause potential bottlenecks in some regions, posing a risk of severe delivery delays that could directly impact customer satisfaction.
To avoid this, businesses must operate with transparency. While some delays may be unavoidable, managing customer expectations with clear and consistent updates using SMS solutions can ensure businesses maintain high customer satisfaction – especially as delivery updates remain one of the most valued messages that customers wish to receive.
Retailers should also connect with customers where they are, using WhatsApp for Business to provide a channel that supports two-way communication and drives effective communication and higher engagement.
The regions most at risk of delivery delays
To identify which regions are expected to be the most at risk from delivery driver shortages, our team analysed over 82,000 job listings across the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, and Australia, to pinpoint the countries and cities most at risk of delays this Black Friday and Christmas period.
We used Indeed data and looked at the number of job vacancies in each region for the most common delivery job titles, including ‘heavy goods vehicle driver’, ‘delivery driver’, ‘logistics coordinator’, ‘picker packer’, and ‘parcel sorter’. We also analysed the current listings for ‘Christmas’ driver’.
The ‘Delivery Delays’ report highlights a critical challenge for UK retailers in meeting delivery demands throughout this peak shopping season.
With 29,225 open positions for delivery roles, the UK has the highest risk of shoppers experiencing delivery delays, averaging 42.1 vacancies per 100,000 people.
With more than 13,000 open vacancies for delivery drivers alone, this represents approximately 187 vacancies per million people in the total population – a potential issue that could lead to widespread delays and increased dissatisfaction among customers eager to receive their holiday purchases on time.
Within the UK, England had the highest vacancy rate with 43.7 delivery vacancies per 100,000, and over 11,000 vacancies for delivery drivers, which may hinder delivery efficiency and lead to longer lead times for customers.
Comparatively, Scotland had a lower rate of 24.2 per 100,000, while Northern Ireland and Wales reported even fewer, with just 16.4 and 16.1 vacancies per 100,000 residents respectively. Collectively, these regions accounted for just 1,000 total vacancies for delivery drivers.
Delivery job shortages across the UK:
| Country | HGV Driver Vacancies | Delivery Driver Vacancies | Logistics Coordinator Vacancies | Picker PackerVacancies | Parcel Sorter Vacancies | Total Delivery Job Shortages (per 100,000) |
| England | 10,000 | 11,000 | 200 | 4,000 | 25 | 43.7 |
| Scotland | 400 | 700 | 17 | 200 | 13 | 24.2 |
| Northern Ireland | 100 | 100 | 7 | 100 | 8 | 16.4 |
| Wales | 200 | 200 | 8 | 100 | 2 | 16.1 |
Regional shortages in the UK
The report found significant variation in delivery vacancies across regions and cities in the UK, indicating that retailers may face a critical challenge in meeting rising consumer demand during this year’s Black Friday and Christmas period.
Within England, the South West region faces the largest shortage, with 1,931 delivery vacancies in total and a vacancy rate of 33.8 per 100,000 residents. This was closely followed by the East of England, with a rate of 33.5, suggesting a potentially higher rate of delivery delays within these regions.
Conversely, the North East of England had a much lower vacancy rate of 9.6, with just 256 vacancies in total, which could lead to a more stable delivery season.
At a city level, Bristol stands out as the city most at risk for delivery delays, with a staggering 98.0 vacancies per 100,000 residents. As a critical shortage in one of the UK’s key cultural hubs, the resulting disruption could widely impact local businesses and shoppers.
Peterborough and Southampton followed behind, with a rate of 86.9 and 75.2 vacancies per capita respectively, further indicating the vulnerability of these cities to potential delays this close to the holiday season.
Shoppers in Manchester can also expect to experience some delays to parcels. Although the third largest city in the UK, there were over 230 vacancies in total for delivery jobs, creating a delivery gap of 59.4 vacancies per 100,000 residents.
York, Oxford, and Leeds round out the top 10 cities most at risk. As prominent destinations for Christmas shopping, the shortages in delivery jobs could result in heightened delivery delays, ultimately impacting customer satisfaction during a crucial retail period.
Top 10 UK cities most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000):
| City | Delivery Vacancies (Total) | Total Delivery Job Shortages (per 100,000) |
| Bristol | 457 | 98.0 |
| Peterborough | 142 | 86.9 |
| Southampton | 203 | 75.2 |
| Warrington | 129 | 74.8 |
| Northampton | 153 | 62.2 |
| Manchester | 235 | 59.4 |
| Slough | 86 | 52.1 |
| York | 70 | 44.8 |
| Oxford | 68 | 41.9 |
| Leeds | 206 | 39.8 |
Despite being the capital and a major retail hub, London faces the lowest risk of delivery delays with the lowest vacancy rate in the UK of 13.1 per 100,000 residents. This could be due to the city’s more prominent logistics infrastructure, which supports a more consistent supply of delivery workers.
Similarly, Liverpool and Birmingham also had lower vacancy rates of 14.4 and 15.7 per capita respectively. While customers in these cities could still encounter some delivery delays, residents are likely to experience fewer disruptions compared to those in more affected cities.
Top 10 UK cities least at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000):
| City | Delivery Vacancies (Total) | Total Delivery Job Shortages (per 100,000) |
| London | 1,178 | 13.1 |
| Liverpool | 125 | 14.4 |
| Birmingham | 180 | 15.7 |
| Cornwall | 100 | 17.5 |
| Cardiff | 93 | 20.7 |
| Dover | 26 | 22.3 |
| Sheffield | 126 | 22.6 |
| Derry | 20 | 23.4 |
| Edinburgh | 121 | 23.8 |
| Milton Keynes | 72 | 28.0 |
Christmas driver vacancies
There are only 25 open ‘Christmas Driver’ roles currently available in the UK. However, as the busy holiday season approaches, the current shortage could quickly become a challenge for businesses looking to meet tight delivery deadlines.
Without additional recruitment, the pressure on the delivery network may intensify closer to December, creating a challenge in meeting consumer expectations.
Top tips for businesses
Chris Gorman, head of commercial transformation at Esendex, commented on the findings:
“As consumers increase spending for Black Friday and Christmas, recognising the regions most at risk from delivery job shortages allows businesses to anticipate potential bottlenecks in the supply chain, which is already facing external pressures from disruptions in the Red Sea and major delivery carriers re-introducing peak season surcharges.
“Our data reveals that the UK is facing a significant risk of delivery disruptions, with over 20,000 open vacancies for delivery roles. Major cities like Bristol and Manchester show the highest concentration of vacancies, which could translate into service disruption for both businesses and customers.
“With demand set to rise sharply, the pressure on delivery systems will intensify. One of the most effective ways to manage these challenges is to use real-time updates and reminders through automated SMS solutions and WhatsApp for Business. These tools enable businesses to keep customers informed about delivery progress and any unexpected delays, allowing for proactive customer engagement.
“During peak retail periods, maintaining transparency is even more crucial to customer satisfaction. By providing timely updates and facilitating two-way communication, businesses can alleviate customer service pressure and ensure greater customer confidence. During such a competitive trading period, responsiveness can be a key differentiator for businesses.”
Find out more about SMS solutions for the retail industry here.
Methodology
Esendex collected and analysed job vacancy data from Indeed across 40 UK regions, and 15 locations in Ireland and Australia. Using keywords for common delivery roles and seasonal positions, Esendex examined the number of vacancies, and then calculated the vacancy rate against the total population data, sourced from City Population, to estimate the per capita demand for delivery roles.
This enabled Esendex to identify the regions where customers may experience greater risks of delays through the peak shopping season.
All data correct as of October 2024.
Mary Henry
Mary has extensive experience in communication, PR and journalism - most recently across SaaS businesses. A keen researcher and storyteller, Mary is highly skilled in making complex concepts accessible, and in putting customers at the heart of her communication. She has supported all kinds of businesses to tell their brand, product and people stories - from global multinationals to start-ups across retail, travel/leisure, banking/finance, government and educational institutions.
